6 Discussion/Assignment Time Series in Health care

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6 Discussion/Assignment Time Series in Health care

6 Discussion/Assignment Time Series in Health care

As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, so will trends predicting who will use healthcare services, when these healthcare services might be used, and where these healthcare services are offered. Undoubtedly, time series analyses can assist healthcare administration leaders in forecasting and predicting how their health services organization might address these trends for healthcare delivery. For example, time series analyses have been useful for forecasting national healthcare expenditures, predicting the future number of beds needed for regional hospitals, and even determining where the greatest healthcare utilization might occur across the country.

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1. This week, you examine time series and forecast models. You consider how to adopt time series analysis for specific variables of interest and explore methods on how to apply time series analysis for healthcare administration practice solutions.

Learning Objectives

Students will:

· Evaluate time series and forecast models

· Analyze appropriate models to measure variables in analysis

· Apply time series analysis

Photo Credit: [Martin Barraud]/[Caiaimage]/Getty Images.

Learning Resources

Note: To access this week’s required library resources, please click on the link to the Course Readings List, found in the Course Materials section of your Syllabus.

Required Readings

Albright, S. C., & Winston, W. L. (2017). Business analytics: Data analysis and decision making (6th ed.). Stamford, CT: Cengage Learning.

Chapter 12, “Time Series Analysis and Forecasting”

Document: Week 6 Assignment Dataset (Excel file)

Required Media

Musa Md. (2013, June 21). SPSS 20 forecasting [Video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e88_vsU-hjo

Discussion Part (2 pages)

Time Series in Health Care

Pam is a healthcare administration leader for a large network of hospitals and health service centers that is attempting to predict future healthcare utilization at their centers over the next 5 years. She obtains data regarding patient use across the hospital network and health service centers and projects forward over the next 5 years to determine which areas might experience continued growth. After applying her time series model, she is able to demonstrate that, indeed, the hospital network and health service centers will experience significant growth. As she prepares to share her results and findings with the board, she also considers advocating for the development of a new regional health service center to fill one of the areas that will experience the most growth according to her forecast projections.

As a current or future healthcare administration leader, you may be asked to assess strategic planning and decision-making using time series analysis.

1. For this Discussion, review the resources for this week, and reflect on time series models and forecasting. Think about how you might implement these methods for healthcare administration practice. 6 Discussion/Assignment Time Series in Health care

By Day 3

Post a description of some variables that you might evaluate using time series in your health services organization or one with which you are familiar. Then, explain what types of models might be most appropriate to measure, and analyze these variables. Be specific, and provide examples.

By Day 5

Continue the Discussion and respond to your colleagues in one or more of the following ways:

· Ask a probing question, substantiated with additional background information, evidence, or research.

· Share an insight from having read your colleagues’ postings, synthesizing the information to provide new perspectives.

· Offer and support an alternative perspective, using readings from the classroom or from your own research in the Walden Library.

· Validate an idea with your own experience and additional research.

· Make a suggestion based on additional evidence drawn from readings or after synthesizing multiple postings.

· Expand on your colleagues’ postings by providing additional insights or contrasting perspectives based on readings and evidence.

Submission and Grading Information

Grading Criteria

To access your rubric:

Week 6 Discussion Rubric

Post by Day 3 and Respond by Day 5

To participate in this Discussion: Week 6 Discussion

Assignment Part (5 pages APA 7th Ed.)

Time Series Analysis for Blayer Pharm (Please use SPSS on YouTube to do this excel).

Blayer Pharm sells two types of blood pressure cuffs at more than 50 locations in the Midwest. The first style is a relatively expensive model, whereas the second is a standard, less expensive model. Although weekly demand for these two products is fairly stable from week to week, there is enough variation to concern management. There have been relatively unsophisticated attempts to forecast weekly demand but they haven’t been very successful. Sometimes demand (and the corresponding sales) is lower than forecasts, so inventory costs are high. Other times, the forecasts are too low. When this happens, and on-hand inventory is not sufficient to meet customer demand, Blayer requires expedited shipments to keep customers happy—and this nearly wipes out Blayer’s profit margin on the expedited units. Profits would almost certainly increase if demand could be forecast more accurately. Data on weekly sales of both products appear in the file for this week. A time series chart of the two sales variables indicates what Blayer management expected—namely, there is no evidence of any upward or downward trends or of any seasonality. In fact, it might appear that each series is an unpredictable sequence of random ups and downs.

1. For this Assignment, reflect on the scenario presented. Review the resources for this week and consider how you might apply time series analyses to address the case questions.

Note: For this Assignment, you will be using SPSS.

Document: Week 6 Assignment Dataset (Excel file).

The Assignment: (5 pages)

Use the dataset to answer the following questions. Provide complete analysis and graphs, as appropriate.

1. It is possible to forecast either series with some degree of accuracy or with an extrapolation method (where only past values of that series are used to forecast current and future values).

A. Perform an analysis with at least two different methods. Show your forecast results in table form (include your SPSS output tables).

B. Which method appears to be best? In narrative form, defend your choice of best method. Include a description of the level of accuracy of the chosen method.

2. Is it possible, when trying to forecast sales of one of your blood pressure cuff products, to somehow incorporate current or past sales of the other blood pressure cuff product in the forecast model? Why or why not? Explain your reasoning and how you would go about doing this.

3. Are these products “substitute” products or are they “complementary” products? Why? Conduct appropriate analyses to support your argument and include tabular results (i.e., your SPSS output).

By Day 7

Submit your answers and embedded SPSS analysis as a Microsoft Word management report.

Submission and Grading Information

To submit your completed Assignment for review and grading, do the following:

· Please save your Assignment using the naming convention “WK6Assgn+last name+first initial.(extension)” as the name.

· Click the Week 6 Assignment Rubric to review the Grading Criteria for the Assignment.

· Click the Week 6 Assignment link. You will also be able to “View Rubric” for grading criteria from this area.

· Next, from the Attach File area, click on the Browse My Computer button. Find the document you saved as “WK6Assgn+last name+first initial. (extension)” and click Open.

· If applicable: From the Plagiarism Tools area, click the checkbox for I agree to submit my paper(s) to the Global Reference Database.

· Click on the Submit button to complete your submission.

Grading Criteria

To access your rubric:

Week 6 Assignment Rubric

The Assignment: (5 pages)

Use the dataset to answer the following questions. Provide complete analysis and graphs, as appropriate.

Week 6 Assignment Rubric Check Your Assignment Draft for Authenticity

To check your Assignment draft for authenticity:

Submit your Week 6 Assignment draft and review the originality report.

Submit Your Assignment by Day 7 6 Discussion/Assignment Time Series in Health care

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